California voters may have rejected Proposition 15, the split-roll initiative that proposed the largest property tax increase in state history, but the preliminary results are very close and could change as remaining votes are counted.

With more than 12.4 million votes counted and reported as of this morning, Proposition 15 had 48.3 percent of the voters in support and 51.7 percent opposed – a difference of 426,663 votes. Since the initial vote count was released on election night, the “no” side has held a steady lead of 400,000-plus votes. The measure needs a simple majority, 50 percent plus one vote, to pass.

Secretary of State Alex Padilla said November 5 that county elections officials estimate that 4.5 million ballots remain to be processed and counted (representing voter turnout estimated to reach approximately 77 percent). He noted that under California law, vote-by-mail ballots postmarked on or before Election Day and received by November 20 must be counted.

“Election results will change throughout the canvass period as vote-by-mail ballots, provisional ballots (including conditional voter registration provisional ballots), and other ballots are tallied,” the Secretary of State’s Office noted on its website.

The state has 21.9 million registered voters and election officials expected high turnout due to the presidential election. The secretary of state will certify the election results December 11.

“We are hopeful that after all the votes are counted, Proposition 15 will join the ranks of the past unsuccessful split-roll attempts,” CalTax President Robert Gutierrez, co-chair of the No on 15 campaign, said. “We are encouraged that the ‘no’ vote is holding steady as voters appear to have looked beyond the biased ballot language and understood that Prop 15 would have a devastating impact on jobs and consumers in California.”

In other election news:

Voters Approve Proposition 22. Proposition 22, the measure to change employment classification rules for app-based transportation and delivery drivers, has been approved.

The measure’s substantial lead – 58.4 percent support as of this morning – means the result will not change as remaining votes are counted.

“The success of Proposition 22 means Californians will continue to have rideshare options, and the state will enjoy a revenue increase thanks to economic activity generated by drivers,” CalTax President Robert Gutierrez said. “Also, state retirement funds are likely to realize gains from their investments in rideshare companies, which takes pressure off the taxpayers who have to pay more into the retirement system when investment returns lag.”

Results for the Remaining Propositions. Preliminary results for the remaining statewide measures:

  • Proposition 14 (CalTax-opposed measure authorizing $5.5 billion in bonds to continue funding stem cell and other medical research): “Yes” leading with 51 percent.
  • Proposition 16 (repeals Proposition 209, the 1996 initiative that bans the state from discriminating against, or granting preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin): Failing with 43.9 percent in support.
  • Proposition 17 (restores voting rights of paroled felons and those who completed prison terms for felony convictions): Passing with 59 percent in support.
  • Proposition 18 (lowers the voting age to 17 in specified circumstances): Failing with 44.8 percent in support.
  • Proposition 19 (property tax increase on some inherited properties, and more portability of base-year value for seniors): Leading with 51.4 percent in support.
  • Proposition 20 (restricts parole for certain offenders, authorizes felony sentences for several crimes currently treated as misdemeanors, and requires people convicted of specified misdemeanors to submit to collection of DNA samples for a state database): Failing with 37.7 percent in support.
  • Proposition 21 (CalTax-opposed expansion of local governments’ authority to enact rent controls on residential property): Failing with 40.3 percent in support.
  • Proposition 23 (authorizes state regulation of kidney dialysis clinics): Failing with 36 percent in support.
  • Proposition 24 (permits consumers to prevent businesses from sharing personal information, limits businesses’ use of most personal information, and authorizes suits against businesses for alleged breaches of consumers’ privacy): Passing with 56 percent in support.
  • Proposition 25 (referendum to overturn law that replaced California’s money bail system with a new system that allows pretrial release from jail based on risk assessment): Succeeding with 55.6 percent voting to repeal the law and preserve the cash bail system.