The
best way for California to secure its fiscal future is for policy-makers to
embrace an economic stimulus plan that achieves economic growth – a strategy
that has worked before and will work again.
This
year’s budget shortfall has grown to an unprecedented $24 billion, more than
one-fourth of the entire budget itself. To date, budget writers are
considering a brew of spending cuts, tax increases and borrowing to at least
get us through the year.
But
seeking to “get through” these tough times is not enough. We cannot cut, beg,
tax and borrow our way to prosperity. Only economic growth will restore
California’s fiscal vitality.
This
year, California has an opportunity to tackle the problem of future deficits
and put millions of workers on a path to a better life. Will we seize it?
One
economic strategy that has worked here and in other states is to reduce the
tax burden on employers and job creators; specifically, reducing the sales tax
on the purchase of new manufacturing equipment, a tax paid only in Wyoming,
South Dakota, Alabama and California.
I am
often asked to substantiate the economic benefit such a reform would bring.
Here it is.
The
Santa Monica-based Milken Institute has performed a dynamic economic analysis
that is the most comprehensive study of this issue to date. It confirms that
reducing the tax burden on business would bring about new hiring, new growth,
new productivity and, finally, new revenue to the state.
As
the report puts it: “Exempting manufacturing equipment from the 5 cent sales
tax results in an average of 50,000 new jobs per year over the next 10 years,
of which 14,000 are created in the manufacturing sector.” The stimulus effect
of a 5-cent sales tax reduction grows total state tax revenues by an average
of nearly $50 million per year.
With
all of the head-scratching going on in the State Capitol, this is a reform
well within reach, and the kind of step that California could take to help
insure against future shortfalls.
Here’s why:
Manufacturing represents 13 percent of California’s employment base and
produces 14 percent of its gross state product. In addition, high-tech
manufacturing (computers, communications equipment, electronic components,
etc.) accounts for almost 40 percent of state manufacturing jobs. Every
manufacturing job creates an additional 3.5 jobs in the economy, a higher
multiple than any other business sector.
The
manufacturing sector has not yet begun to recover from the recent economic
downturn. While overall employment numbers are showing signs of recovery,
manufacturing employment is still on the decline. Since January 2001 a total
of 145,300 manufacturing jobs have been lost – 7.4 percent of our industrial
workforce.
This
loss is all the more compelling when you understand the nature of a
manufacturing job.
Whether you are talking about the smokestack industry of yesterday or the
high-tech manufacturing of today, it is time to realize that manufacturing is
the gateway to the middle class for under-educated and low-skilled workers.
California’s industrial workforce, now as in the past, reflects our diverse
ethnic communities.
Manufacturing creates a high-skill, high-wage workforce, including upwardly
mobile jobs that pay an average of $22,000 a year more than the average
service-sector job. This can be the difference needed to qualify for a
mortgage or pay for a child’s college education.
The
Milken Institute has provided the proof, and now it’s up to policy-makers to
prepare the pudding. The obvious recipe: Create effective incentives to
modernize and stimulate the industries that will fire the engine of
California’s growth.