As with any new governor, time will tell whether taxes go up or down, or stay the same. In Gray Davis, California voters have elected their first Democratic governor in 16 years and fourth in this century. They appear to have elected a pragmatic chief executive, based on past performance. And he campaigned as a moderate, a centrist.

In what hopefully will be good news for taxpayers, the governor-elect, while refusing to take a no-new-taxes campaign pledge, has said he believes it is unnecessary to raise general taxes. And he campaigned on his ability, honed as the state's controller with audit authority, to ferret out waste in government spending.

With that said, it appears he will have to display a keen sense of balance if he is to satisfy the voracious spending desires of some principal supporters, particularly the public employee unions, and not alienate taxpayers who, as the recent election demonstrated, are still a potent political force.

What does the future hold? Aided by campaign statements, here are some glimpses at what Californians can expect over the next four years:

Governor-elect
Gray Davis

• Education. Mr. Davis' primary focus is on education reform, which he acknowledges may take most of his four-year term to pay dividends. Part of his already-announced agenda is to reduce the vote requirement for local general obligation school bonds from two-thirds to a simple majority. Governor Wilson and the state Senate supported such a plan in 1998, but could not get it through the Assembly because of Republican opposition. A constitutional amendment needs two-thirds approval in the Legislature to qualify for the ballot.
• The Car Tax. Mr. Davis endorsed the 25 percent reduction of the vehicle license fee that takes effect January 1. Beyond that, however, he would prefer that the lion's share of surplus revenue go to education.
• The Business Climate. He will pay close attention to the state of the economy and the ability of business to grow. "If businesses don't succeed, there are no jobs and no revenues. We all succeed when business succeeds," he wrote in the Cal-Tax Digest last October.
• Fiscal Agenda. For those who have said the past administration and legislatures have hemmed in the next governor and 1999 Legislature with tax policies that phase in over the next four or five years: The new Legislature, to be sworn in December 7, and the new governor, upon his January 4 inauguration, probably will want to chart their own course. They know that today's laws will not necessarily bind the hands of tomorrow's lawmakers.
• Spending. While the governor-elect has promised to hold a tight rein over the state budget, he also has pledged to provide public employees their first pay raises in four years. Through the collective bargaining process, it will happen. The question: How much? Mr. Davis also has indicated that he would be willing to improve the already outstanding public employee pension program, which could have major long-term cost implications.
• Local Government Finance. Expect a review of the multi-billion-dollar shift of property tax revenues from cities, counties and special districts to schools. He has vowed to provide resources that allow local governments to succeed.
• Higher Taxes. Among those who are politically allied with the governor-elect are the loudest voices for more government spending - and higher taxes, particularly on businesses. With some exceptions, they have been stymied for the past 16 years. The 1998 elections do not change the fact that Republican votes will still be necessary to raise taxes, as such measures require two-thirds votes in the Senate and Assembly.
• Tax Relief. He will approach tax cuts with caution, because he has promised that he will not jeopardize governments' ability to do their jobs. If there is still some loose change after spending priorities are satisfied, expect to see "targeted" tax cuts, rather than across-the-board tax reductions. For example, the governor-elect, like his predecessor, is a huge fan of the research and development tax credit.

As governor, Mr. Davis has said he would try to abolish capital gains taxes on investments held more than five years. And he would like to eliminate the minimum franchise tax for start-up businesses. He was critical of this tax while serving as lieutenant governor.

Using a golfing analogy, Los Angeles Times columnist George Skelton recently wrote that Mr. Davis, who used to shoot in the 70s as a member of the Stanford University golf team, seems to be as focused on the bouncing political ball as he is when he executes a difficult recovery shot from the tough rough of a golf course. He has the ability to draw or fade his shots off the tee.

A pragmatic politician - and an accomplished golfer - will take advantage of the well-placed tee shot for the position that capitalizes on the landscape, and hazards, that each hole, or issue, presents.

Experienced Davis-watchers will testify that he is not a politician who throws caution to the wind. He has vowed to bring all sides to the table for negotiations on crucial issues before settling on a course of action. It still remains to be seen, however, whether taxes go up, down, or remain the same under a Davis administration.